Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk

1979/03/01 by Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · 47,473 citations
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Decision Sciences · #Agricultural risk and resilience #Decision theory #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Econometrics #Economics #Mathematical economics #Microeconomics #Prospect theory #Risk and Portfolio Optimization

paper · doi:10.2307/1914185

published in Econometrica 47(2), 263 (Wiley)

openalex publication_date 1979/03/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05

Abstract

This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low prob-abilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling. 1.

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• Hyposensitivity to losses under risk but hypersensitivity to gains under ambiguity during feedback evaluation
• Climate Change Advocacy and Engagement on Social Media
• Higher alcohol use is associated with subsequent increased risk seeking toward gains: A longitudinal cohort study in young men
• What about Passive Innovation Resistance? Investigating Adoption‐Related Behavior from a Resistance Perspective
• When Consumers Learn, Money Burns: Signaling Quality via Advertising with Observational Learning and Word of Mouth
• Toward an Understanding of When Executives See Crisis as Opportunity
• Evolving Transparency: How Family Control Shapes ESG Disclosure Across Corporate Life Cycle
• Social physics
• The price does not include additional taxes, fees, and surcharges: A review of research on partitioned pricing
• Employer‐provided health insurance: Are two options too many?
• Russia’s Strategy of Outsuffering and the War in Ukraine
• From Hesitation to Participation: Examining Behavioural Barriers to Engage Customers in Flexibility Markets
• WEIRD? Institutions and consumers’ perceptions of artificial intelligence in 31 countries
• Wellbeing and Happiness
• Evidence supporting the best clinical management of patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy: a systematic guideline review and expert consensus
• Neural computations associated with goal-directed choice
• A theory of anticipated utility
• Stochastic dominance and behavior towards risk: The market for Internet stocks
• Predictive analytics and the targeting of audits
• Does a scopic regime erode the disposition effect? Evidence from a social trading platform
• Nudging businesses to pay their taxes: Does timing matter?
• General uncertainty in portfolio selection: A case-based decision approach
• Rhetoric matters: A social norms explanation for the anomaly of framing
• Exploring the effects of institutional logics on entrepreneurial opportunity evaluations in emerging economies
• Development and validation of the General Risk Propensity Scale (GRiPS)
• Leaving it on the table? An examination of unrealized bargaining power in multimarket buyer–supplier exchanges
• Preferences for end-of-life care among community-dwelling older adults and patients with advanced cancer: A discrete choice experiment
• A mechanism model of the effect of hedonic product consumption on well‐being
• A meta‐analysis on the effects of just‐below versus round prices
• Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting
• Leaving with something: When do people experience an equity–efficiency conflict?
• COVID-19 and its long-term effects on activity participation and travel behaviour: A multiperspective view
• Consequences of Perceiving Oneself as Responsible for Obtaining a Discount: Evidence for Smart‐Shopper Feelings
• Experience-Based and Description-Based Perceptions of Long-Term Risk: Why Global Warming does not Scare us (Yet)
• Keeping secure to the end: a long-term perspective to understand employees’ consequence-delayed information security violation
• Green defaults: Information presentation and pro-environmental behaviour
• Neural Basis of Reinforcement Learning and Decision Making
• Does mathematics training lead to better logical thinking and reasoning? A cross-sectional assessment from students to professors
• Small- and large-stakes risk aversion: Implications of concavity calibration for decision theory
• A comparison of hypothetical risk attitude elicitation instruments for explaining farmer crop insurance purchases
• Investigating the effects of single-dose intranasal testosterone on economic preferences in a large randomized trial of men
• Aspirations as reference points: an experimental investigation of risk behavior over time
• A second-generation disappointment aversion theory of decision making under risk
• Estimating cumulative prospect theory parameters from an international survey
• The Asymmetric Experience of Positive and Negative Economic Growth: Global Evidence Using Subjective Well-Being Data
• On deciding to have a lobotomy: either lobotomies were justified or decisions under risk should not always seek to maximise expected utility
• A review of nudges: Definitions, justifications, effectiveness
• Using Specific Language to Describe Risk and Probability
• Success, Failure, and Entrepreneurial Reentry: An Experimental Assessment of the Veracity of Self–Efficacy and Prospect Theory
• Behavioral Anomalies and Energy-related Individual Choices: The Role of Status-quo Bias
• Pricing workplace parking via cash-out: Effects on modal choice and implications for transport policy
• A Dynamic Model of the Duration of the Customer's Relationship with a Continuous Service Provider: The Role of Satisfaction
• DEEP sleep: The impact of sleep on financial risk taking
• In the eye of the beholder: Stakeholder perceived value in sustainable business models
• External representations in strategic decision‐making: Understanding strategy's reliance on visuals
• Social learning under ambiguity—An experimental study
• Modular Maximization Theory: A functional account of economic behavior in laboratory animal models with applications to drug-seeking behavior
• Who is the Populist Voter?
• Banking bad? A global field experiment on risk, reward, and regulation
• Chief marketing officer pay: The revenue growth consequences of employing internal and external benchmarks
• All Options Are on the Table? Time Horizons and the Decision-Making Process in Conflict
• Cultural proximity bias in AI-acceptability: The importance of being human
• Delay Discounting and Risk Tolerance in Obsessive Compulsive Disorder: Results From the Global OCD Study
• The attention–aversion gap: how allocation of attention relates to loss aversion
• Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
• On the Intuition of Rank-Dependent Utility
• ‘Sneaky’ Persuasion in Public Health Risk Communication
• Golf as an Innovation in the Teaching of Finance: Report on a Pioneering Experience
• Emotional sound symbolism: Languages rapidly signal valence via phonemes
• Kahneman in quotes and reflections
• Tax Misperception and its Effects on Decision Making – Literature Review and Behavioral Taxpayer Response Model
• Expected subjective value theory (ESVT): A representation of decision under risk and certainty
• Disentangling Risk Management and Error Management in the Public Sector: A Theoretical Framework
• Anger and Political Conflict Dynamics
• Frank Knight and behavioral economics
• Performance deviations and acquisition premiums: The impact of CEO celebrity on managerial risk‐taking
• Personal information management: From information consumption to curation
• Sensitivity shift theory: A developmental model of positive affect and motivational deficits in social anxiety disorder
• Social Hedonic Editing: People Prefer to Experience Events at the Same Time as Others
• Supporting carbon taxes: The role of fairness
• Factors and framing effects in support for net zero policies in the United Kingdom
• Budget starting position matters: A “field‐in‐lab” experiment testing simulation engagement and budgetary preferences
• Legitimacy Through Research, Not Rankings: A Provocation and Proposal for Business Schools
• “More is not always better”: Park's sweet spot theory‐driven implementation strategy for viable optimal safe nurse staffing policy in practice
• Do macroeconomic drivers fuel bubbles in emerging markets? Insights from GSADF and machine learning
• Fear and promise of the unknown: How losses discourage and promote exploration
• Identity and the Economics of Organizations
• Investing in the Unknown and Unknowable
• Transfer of value from fit.
• Locomotion, assessment, and regulatory fit: Value transfer from “how” to “what”
• Making a good decision: Value from fit.
• Heuristics and biases in diagnostic reasoning
• On bad decisions and disconfirmed expectancies: The psychology of regret and disappointment
• Striving for Happiness or Fleeing from Sadness? Motivating Mood Repair Using Differentially Framed Messages
• Subjective Construal, Social Inference, and Human Misunderstanding
• Psychological Barriers to Dispute Resolution
• Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives
• History of Social Psychology: Insights, Challenges, and Contributions to Theory and Application
• Managerial ownership and the disposition effect
• Experimental evidence on bank runs with uncertain deposit coverage
• Offering the right incentive at the right time: Leveraging customer mental accounting to promote prepaid service
• Poverty Reduction Policies and Practices in Developing Asia
• Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions
• Rational Choice Institutionalism
• The End of Framing as we Know it … and the Future of Media Effects
• Research in social entrepreneurship: past contributions and future opportunities
• Using large language models to generate silicon samples in consumer and marketing research: Challenges, opportunities, and guidelines
• Changing attitudes to risk at older ages: The role of health and other life events
• Predicting the Future with Social Media
• Which Is the Fairest One of All? A Positive Analysis of Justice Theories
• The power of green defaults: the impact of regional variation of opt-out tariffs on green energy demand in Germany
• Goals as reference points in marathon running: A novel test of reference dependence
• The Positive and Negative Effects of Switching Costs on Relational Outcomes
• The mental accounting of sunk time costs: why time is not like money
• Bounded Ethicality as a Psychological Barrier to Recognizing Conflicts of Interest
• “The Time vs. Money Effect”: Shifting Product Attitudes and Decisions through Personal Connection
• To Do or Not to Do: A Critique of Medical Reason
• Sociohydrology: Scientific Challenges in Addressing the Sustainable Development Goals
• Pseudoinefficacy: negative feelings from children who cannot be helped reduce warm glow for children who can be helped
• Hedonic impacts of gains versus losses of time: are we loss averse?
• A Generalized Additive Model for Discrete-Choice Data
• A Goals-Based Theory of Utility
• Estimating Risk Preferences from Deductible Choice
• Moral Judgment as Categorization (MJAC)
• Causes of Allais common consequence paradoxes: An experimental dissection
• Comparative Psychology
• Stuck in the Past: Why Managers Persist with New Product Failures
• Uncertainty, rationality and cooperation in the context of climate change
• Agenda-Setting, Priming, and Framing Revisited: Another Look at Cognitive Effects of Political Communication
• Capitalized value of evolving flood risks discount and nature-based solution premiums on property prices
• The Uncertainty Effect: When a Risky Prospect is Valued Less than its Worst Possible Outcome
• Action Bias and Environmental Decisions
• How Institutions Evolve: Evolutionary Theory and Institutional Change
• Organizational change and rigidity during crisis: A review of the paradox
• What do people value when they negotiate? Mapping the domain of subjective value in negotiation.
• Disappointment Aversion in internet Bidding-Decisions
• The Killing Trap: Genocide in the Twentieth Century
• Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers
• A typology of social entrepreneurs: Motives, search processes and ethical challenges
• Incentives for Green Technology Adoption and Compliance Under Risk Aversion and Technological Uncertainty
• Happiness and Childbearing Across Europe
• Human Heuristics for Autonomous Agents
• Cognitive Biases in Negotiation Processes
• Cognitive Reflection and Decision Making
• The multiplicity of emotions: A framework of emotional functions in decision making
• The Study of Bias in Entrepreneurship
• Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
• From perception to action: An economic model of brain processes
• Testing the Effect of Price Framing on Nonresidents’ Perceptions of Dual Pricing in State Parks: An Application of Prospect Theory
• Denying Antecedents and Affirming Consequents: The State of the Art
• Women’s Attitudes Toward Invasive and Noninvasive Testing When Facing a High Risk of Fetal Down Syndrome
• On Product Uncertainty in Online Markets: Theory and Evidence1
• When Can Politicians Scare Citizens Into Supporting Bad Policies?
• Group decision making and communication technology
• Betting Your Favorite to Win: Costly Reluctance to Hedge Desired Outcomes
• Rationality authority for provable rational behavior
• Evolutionary Game Theory: A Renaissance
• Chemical Game Theory
• Intuitive confidence: Choosing between intuitive and nonintuitive alternatives.
• The Cognitive Psychology of Lottery Gambling: A Theoretical Review
• The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk
• An Empirical Assessment of the Influence of March and Simon’s Organizations: The Realized Contribution and Unfulfilled Promise of a Masterpiece
• Satisficing: Integrating Two Traditions
• Recent Advances in the Analyses of Demand for Agricultural Insurance in Developing and Emerging Countries
• Who asks and who receives in salary negotiation
• Negotiation
• Wireless Service Pricing Competition Under Network Effect, Congestion Effect, and Bounded Rationality
• Compassion Fade: Affect and Charity Are Greatest for a Single Child in Need
• Changing Places
• Fairness and the Willingness to Accept Plea Bargain Offers
• Two decades of cognitive bias research in entrepreneurship: What do we know and where do we go from here?
• People systematically overlook subtractive changes
• Mis-spending on information security measures: Theory and experimental evidence
• Distinction Bias: Misprediction and Mischoice Due to Joint Evaluation.
• Support theory: A nonextensional representation of subjective probability.
• The privacy paradox – Investigating discrepancies between expressed privacy concerns and actual online behavior – A systematic literature review
• Paradoxes of Rational Choice Theory
• Explaining the energy efficiency gap - Expected Utility Theory versus Cumulative Prospect Theory
• Incorporating Behavioural, Social, and Organizational Phenomena in the Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Options
• A Conceptual Review of Decision Making in Social Dilemmas: Applying a Logic of Appropriateness
• Behaving or not? Explaining energy conservation via identity, values, and awareness in U.S. suburban homes
• Immigration and Welfare Support in Germany
• Simulating the deep decarbonisation of residential heating for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C
• Perspectives on Behavioral Finance: Does "Irrationality" Disappear with Wealth? Evidence from Expectations and Actions
• Happiness and travel mode switching: Findings from a Swiss public transportation experiment
• Why Conventional Tools for Policy Analysis Are Often Inadequate for Problems of Global Change
• Public perceptions of ocean health and marine protection: Drivers of support for Oregon's marine reserves
• Partial least squares structural equation modeling-based discrete choice modeling: an illustration in modeling retailer choice
• Disinformation in international politics
• Fake News Detection on Social Media
• When does event valence affect unrealistic optimism?
• Event Valence and Unrealistic Optimism
• Explaining the effect of event valence on unrealistic optimism
• The New Politics of the Welfare State
• On the other hand am I rational? Hemispheric activation and the framing effect
• Risk Assessment Under Perceptual Ambiguity and its Impact on Category Learning
• The Psychology of Financial Decision-Making: Applications to Trading, Dealing, and Investment Analysis
• On the sunk-cost effect in economic decision-making: a meta-analytic review
• Pride in economic psychology
• Is there a Sunk Cost Effect in Committed Relationships?
• An analysis of a pilot’s adherence to their personal weather minimums
• DO SUNK COSTS MATTER?
• The Sunk Cost "Fallacy" Is Not a Fallacy
• The Financial/Economic Dichotomy in Social Behavioral Dynamics: The Socionomic Perspective
• Noise
• Neuroeconomics
• Generalization of results and neoclassical rationality: unresolved controversies of behavioural economics methodology
• Prospect Theory in Political Science: Gains and Losses From the First Decade
• Rationality
• Violations of the betweenness axiom and nonlinearity in probability
• Adam Smith, Behavioral Economist
• Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market
• Behavioral Economics
• Behavioral decision making, forecasting, game theory, and role-play
• The Willingness to Pay—Willingness to Accept Gap, the “Endowment Effect,” Subject Misconceptions, and Experimental Procedures for Eliciting Valuations: Reply
• The Rise of Behavioral Economics: A Quantitative Assessment
• Richard H. Thaler: A Nobel Prize for Behavioural Economics
• On some antecedents of behavioural economics
• Violations at the Reference Point of Discontinuity: Limitations of Prospect Theory and an Alternative Model of Risk Choices
• Reserve Prices in Auctions as Reference Points
• Deal or No Deal? Decision Making under Risk in a Large-Payoff Game Show
• PROSPECT THEORY AND POLITICAL SCIENCE
• Prospect theory in a dynamic game: Theory and evidence from online pay-per-bid auctions
• Replicating patterns of prospect theory for decision under risk
• Prospect Theory and Political Decision Making
• Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions
• Deterrence and Coercive Diplomacy: The Contributions of Alexander George
• Behavioural economics, consumer behaviour and consumer policy: state of the art
• The Effect of Product Misperception on Economic Outcomes: Evidence from the Extended Warranty Market
• An Information Theory for Preferences
• For a fistful of pesetas? The political economy of the army in a nonconsolidated democracy: the Second Spanish Republic and Civil War (1931–9)
• Reform and Rebellion in Weak States
• Expectations of Inflation: The Role of Demographic Variables, Expectation Formation, and Financial Literacy
• Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs
• The Winner Takes It All: Investor Sentiment and the Eurovision Song Contest
• Economic cognition in humans and animals: the search for core mechanisms
• Impact of Perceived Healthiness of Food on Food Choices and Intake
• The Dark Side of the Loon. Explaining the Temptations of Obscurantism
• The Benefits of Frequent Positive Affect: Does Happiness Lead to Success?
• Unfixed Resources: Perceived Costs, Consumption, and the Accessible Account Effect
• Perspectives on mental accounting: An exploration of budgeting and investing
• Mental accounting and categorization
• Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice
• Mapping morality with a compass: Testing the theory of ‘morality-as-cooperation’ with a new questionnaire
• The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice
• THE BEHAVIORAL LIFE‐CYCLE HYPOTHESIS
• More or Less: A Model and Empirical Evidence on Preferences for Under- and Overpayment in Trade-In Transactions
• Harm to others outweighs harm to self in moral decision making
• The neural basis of human moral cognition
• Understanding the NIMBY and LULU Phenomena: Reassessing Our Knowledge Base and Informing Future Research
• Resource Slack and Propensity to Discount Delayed Investments of Time Versus Money.
• Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty
• The effects of introducing and terminating loyalty programs
• Buying, Expropriating, and Stealing Votes
• Segregation by design local politics and inequality in American cities
• Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
• Heuristics and Biases
• Finding The “Self” in Self-Regulation: The Identity-Value Model
• Social interaction, Internet access and stock market participation—An empirical study in China
• The Denomination Effect
• Travel Choice Behavior Model Based on Mental Accounting of Travel Time and Cost
• Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport
• What you Should Know about Megaprojects and Why: An Overview
• Should we build more large dams? The actual costs of hydropower megaproject development
• Kaldor–Kalecki New Model on Business Cycles
• Enabling socially responsible operations: A decision-making model for a firm contracting with decision-biased smallholders
• Transforming financial decision-making with hybrid artificial intelligence (AI)
• Do starting and ending effects in fixed-price group-buying differ?
• Factors affecting social presence and word-of-mouth in corporate social responsibility communication: Tone of voice, message framing, and online medium type
• Size distribution of cities: A kinetic explanation
• When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism
• How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?: The Case of Transportation
• The impacts of industrialization on construction subcontractors: a resource based view
• Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion
• Selective exposure and decision framing: The impact of gain and loss framing on confirmatory information search after decisions
• Selective Exposure, Decision Uncertainty, and Cognitive Economy: A New Theoretical Perspective on Confirmatory Information Search
• Measuring perceptions related to e-cigarettes: Important principles and next steps to enhance study validity
• Hyporeactivity of ventral striatum towards incentive stimuli in unmedicated depressed patients normalizes after treatment with escitalopram
• Bad is Stronger than Good
• Ambiguity and self-evaluation: The role of idiosyncratic trait definitions in self-serving assessments of ability.
• Analysis of multinomial models under inequality constraints: Applications to measurement theory
• New paradoxes of risky decision making.
• Plausible measurement analogies to some psychometric models of test performance
• A Model of Customer Satisfaction with Service Encounters Involving Failure and Recovery
• When do households invest in solar photovoltaics? An application of prospect theory
• Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict
• Risky choice framing: Task versions and a comparison of prospect theory and fuzzy‐trace theory
• Framing effects as violations of extensionality
• How Children Reason about Gains and Losses: Framing Effects in Judgement and Choice
• Aging and decision making: Differences in susceptibility to the risky‐choice framing effect between older and younger adults in Japan
• The Foreign-Language Effect
• Behavioral economics [wikipedia]
• Prospect theory [wikipedia]
• Theory of conjoint measurement [wikipedia]
• Changes in preferences for life-sustaining treatment among older persons with advanced illness. [europepmc]
• The human amygdala and orbital prefrontal cortex in behavioural regulation. [europepmc]
• Extending a biologically inspired model of choice: multi-alternatives, nonlinearity and value-based multidimensional choice. [europepmc]
• Understanding decision-making deficits in neurological conditions: insights from models of natural action selection. [europepmc]
• Explicit neural signals reflecting reward uncertainty. [europepmc]
• A test of financial incentives to improve warfarin adherence. [europepmc]
• Financial incentives for extended weight loss: a randomized, controlled trial. [europepmc]
• Key issues in the design of pay for performance programs. [europepmc]
• The functional and structural neural basis of individual differences in loss aversion. [europepmc]
• The anatomy of choice: active inference and agency. [europepmc]
• The use of discrete choice experiments to inform health workforce policy: a systematic review. [europepmc]
• On the challenges and mechanisms of embodied decisions. [europepmc]
• Homeostatic reinforcement learning for integrating reward collection and physiological stability. [europepmc]
• Cognitive effort: A neuroeconomic approach. [europepmc]
• Pictorial cigarette pack warnings: a meta-analysis of experimental studies. [europepmc]
• The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account. [europepmc]
• Dopaminergic Modulation of Decision Making and Subjective Well-Being. [europepmc]
• Going against the Herd: Psychological and Cultural Factors Underlying the 'Vaccination Confidence Gap'. [europepmc]
• Roles of the Different Sub-Regions of the Insular Cortex in Various Phases of the Decision-Making Process. [europepmc]
• Anticipated regret and health behavior: A meta-analysis. [europepmc]
• Neural Signatures of Value Comparison in Human Cingulate Cortex during Decisions Requiring an Effort-Reward Trade-off. [europepmc]
• Vigor of reaching movements: reward discounts the cost of effort. [europepmc]
• Changing health behaviors using financial incentives: a review from behavioral economics. [europepmc]
• Effectiveness of Behaviorally Designed Gamification Interventions With Social Incentives for Increasing Physical Activity Among Overweight and Obese Adults Across the United States: The STEP UP Randomized Clinical Trial. [europepmc]
• The Relationship Between Uncertainty and Affect. [europepmc]

Related

• Prospect Theory and Political Decision Making
• Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment
• Experienced vs. Described Uncertainty: Do We Need Two Prospect Theory Specifications?
• Violations at the Reference Point of Discontinuity: Limitations of Prospect Theory and an Alternative Model of Risk Choices
• Neilson's Weak vs. Strong Loss Aversion: A Characterization and a Generalized CPT-Utility Function