2004/06/01 by Emily Oster · 11 citations
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Psychology · #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Econometrics #Economics #Extrapolation #Gambling Behavior and Treatments #Lottery #Mathematics #Microeconomics #Sample (material) #Sports Analytics and Performance #Statistics
paper · open access · doi:10.17310/ntj.2004.2.02
published in National Tax Journal 57(2.1), 179-187 (University of Chicago Press)
openalex publication_date 2004/06/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/27
The regressivity of lotteries has become an increasingly important issue in the U.S. as the number of state-run lotteries has increased. Despite this, we still know relatively little about the nature of lottery regressivity. I use a new dataset on Powerball lotto sales to analyze how regressivity varies with jackpot size within a single lotto game. I find that this large-stakes game is significantly less regressive at higher jackpot sizes. Out-of-sample extrapolation of this result suggests the possibility of progressivité at jackpots substantially higher than those currently experienced. This may indicate that concerns about regressivity might be allayed by concentrating lotto games to produce higher average jackpots.