Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
2008/02/07 by Timothy M. Lenton, Hermann Held, Elmar Kriegler +4 · 4,037 citations
Engineering · Environmental Science · #Business #Climate change #Climate system #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Computer science #Earth system science #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Engineering #Environmental resource management #Environmental science #Forcing (mathematics) #Geography #Geology #Meteorology #Operations research #Physics #Risk analysis (engineering) #Science and Climate Studies #Term (time) #Tipping point (physics)
paper · open access · doi:10.1073/pnas.0705414105
published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786-1793 (National Academy of Sciences)
openalex publication_date 2008/02/07 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
Abstract
The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.
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