Potential climatic transitions with profound impact on Europe

2011/06/17 by Anders Levermann, Jonathan Bamber, Sybren Drijfhout +10 · 94 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Arctic #Climate change #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Cryosphere #Cryospheric studies and observations #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #Environmental science #Future sea level #Geography #Geology #Glacier #Global change #Global cooling #Ice stream #Northern Hemisphere #Oceanography #Ozone depletion #Physical geography #Sea ice #Stratosphere #Thermohaline circulation

paper · open access · doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0126-5

published in Climatic Change 110(3-4), 845-878 (Springer Science+Business Media)

openalex publication_date 2011/06/17 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/06

Abstract

We discuss potential transitions of six climatic subsystems with large-scale impact on Europe, sometimes denoted as tipping elements. These are the ice sheets on Greenland and West Antarctica, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, Arctic sea ice, Alpine glaciers and northern hemisphere stratospheric ozone. Each system is represented by co-authors actively publishing in the corresponding field. For each subsystem we summarize the mechanism of a potential transition in a warmer climate along with its impact on Europe and assess the likelihood for such a transition based on published scientific literature. As a summary, the ‘tipping’ potential for each system is provided as a function of global mean temperature increase which required some subjective interpretation of scientific facts by the authors and should be considered as a snapshot of our current understanding.

Citations

• Global Climate Projections
• A 20th century acceleration in global sea‐level rise
• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
• HISTALP—historical instrumental climatological surface time series of the Greater Alpine Region
• Basal conditions for Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, West Antarctica, determined using satellite and airborne data
• Global Climatic Impacts of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
• 100‐year mass changes in the Swiss Alps linked to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
• Collapse and rapid resumption of Atlantic meridional circulation linked to deglacial climate changes
• A link between reduced Barents‐Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents
• An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Models
• The stability of the MOC as diagnosed from model projections for pre-industrial, present and future climates
• On the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation
• Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years
• Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice
• Extracting a Climate Signal from 169 Glacier Records

Cited by

• Abrupt cooling over the North Atlantic in modern climate models
• Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming
• Anders Levermann [wikipedia]

Related

• European Temperature Extremes Under Different AMOC Scenarios in the Community Earth System Model
• Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
• Asymmetric warming rates between warm and cold weather regimes in Europe
• Domino Effects in the Earth System -- The potential role of wanted tipping points
• Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt