European Temperature Extremes Under Different AMOC Scenarios in the Community Earth System Model

2025/06/11 by René M. van Westen, Michiel Baatsen · 1 voice · 22 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Climate variability and models #Climatology #Earth model #Earth system science #Environmental science #Geology #Geophysics #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Meteorology #Oceanography #Physics

paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2025gl114611

published in Geophysical Research Letters 52(12) (American Geophysical Union)

openalex publication_date 2025/06/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29

Abstract

Abstract Recent simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) indicate that a tipping event of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) would cause Europe to cool by several degrees. This AMOC tipping event was found under constant pre‐industrial greenhouse gas forcing, while global warming likely limits this AMOC‐induced cooling response. Here, we quantify the European temperature responses under different AMOC regimes and climate change scenarios. A strongly reduced AMOC state and intermediate global warming (C, Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) has a profound cooling effect on Northwestern Europe with more intense cold extremes. The largest temperature responses are found during the winter months and these responses are strongly influenced by the North Atlantic sea‐ice extent. Enhanced North Atlantic storm track activity under an AMOC collapse results in substantially larger day‐to‐day temperature fluctuations. We conclude that the (far) future European temperatures are dependent on both the AMOC strength and the emission scenario.

Citations

• Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course

Cited by

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• The 2025 state of the climate report: a planet on the brink
• Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model
• Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping
• Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes
• Physics‐Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change
• Uncertainties within Weather Regime definitions for the Euro-Atlantic sector in ERA5 and CMIP6
• The Effects of a Constructed Closure of the Bering Strait on AMOC Tipping Behavior

Discussions

• A return of sea ice to the North Sea, 80-100 nights with sub-zero temperatures a year, an accelerated sea-level rise and less precipitation. Dramatic changes for just about any aspect of life in Weste [bsky, 31 points, 1 comments]

Related

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• Substantial Risk of 21st Century AMOC Tipping even under Moderate Climate Change
• Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model
• Physics‐Based Indicators for the Onset of an AMOC Collapse Under Climate Change
• Overlooked possibility of a collapsed Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in warming climate