2019/09/06 by Yayun Zheng, Zheng, Yayun, Fang Yang +9 · 3 citations
Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Advanced Thermodynamics and Statistical Mechanics #Ecosystem dynamics and resilience #FOS: Physical sciences #Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech) #Statistical Mechanics and Entropy #cond-mat.stat-mech
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1909.08693
arxiv created 2019/09/06 · openalex publication_date 2019/09/06 · arxiv updated 2019/09/20 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
An abrupt climatic transition could be triggered by a single extreme event, an α-stable non-Gaussian Lévy noise is regarded as a type of noise to generate such extreme events. In contrast with the classic Gaussian noise, a comprehensive approach of the most probable transition path for systems under α-stable Lévy noise is still lacking. We develop here a probabilistic framework, based on the nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, to investigate the maximum likelihood climate change for an energy balance system under the influence of greenhouse effect and Lévy fluctuations. We find that a period of the cold climate state can be interrupted by a sharp shift to the warmer one due to larger noise jumps, and the climate change for warming 1.5\rm oC under an enhanced greenhouse effect generates a step-like growth process. These results provide important insights into the underlying mechanisms of abrupt climate transitions triggered by a Lévy process.