Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

2005/07/21 by Shree Khare, Khare, Shree, Stephen Jewson +1 · 2 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0507165

arxiv created 2005/07/21 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01

Abstract

We present a simple method for the year-ahead prediction of the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US. The method is based on averages of historical annual hurricane numbers, and we perform a backtesting study to find the length of averaging window that would have given the best predictions in the past.

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