Year-ahead Prediction of Hurricane Season Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic

2006/06/21 by Jonathan P. Meagher, Jonathan Meagher, Meagher, Jonathan +2 · 1 citation
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0606185

arxiv created 2006/06/21 · openalex publication_date 2006/06/21 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

One possible method for the year-ahead prediction of hurricane numbers would be to make a year-ahead prediction of sea surface temperature (SST), and then to apply relationships that link SST to hurricane numbers. As a first step towards setting up such a system this article compares three simple statistical methods for the year-ahead prediction of the relevant SSTs.

Citations

• Year-ahead prediction of US landfalling hurricane numbers

Cited by

• Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods

Related

• Five year prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison of simple statistical methods
• Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods
• Predicting basin and landfalling hurricane numbers from sea surface temperature
• Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes
• Statistical Modelling of the Relationship Between Main Development Region Sea Surface Temperature and Landfalling Atlantic Basin Hurricane Numbers