Predicting hurricane numbers from Sea Surface Temperature: closed form expressions for the mean, variance and standard error of the number of hurricanes

2007/01/15 by Stephen Jewson, Jewson, Stephen
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0701167

arxiv created 2007/01/15 · openalex publication_date 2007/01/15 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

One way to predict hurricane numbers would be to predict sea surface temperature, and then predict hurricane numbers as a function of the predicted sea surface temperature. For certain parametric models for sea surface temperature and the relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane numbers, closed-form solutions exist for the mean and the variance of the number of predicted hurricanes, and for the standard error on the mean. We derive a number of such expressions.

Citations

• Statistical Modelling of the Relationship Between Main Development Region Sea Surface Temperature and Landfalling Atlantic Basin Hurricane Numbers

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