2007/01/15 by Stephen Jewson, Jewson, Stephen, Thomas Laepple +5
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #physics.ao-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0701176
openalex publication_date 2007/01/15 · arxiv created 2007/01/29 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We consider two ways that one might convert a prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) into a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers. First, one might regress historical numbers of landfalling hurricanes onto historical SSTs, and use the fitted regression relation to predict future landfalling hurricane numbers given predicted SSTs. We call this the direct approach. Second, one might regress basin hurricane numbers onto historical SSTs, estimate the proportion of basin hurricanes that make landfall, and use the fitted regression relation and estimated proportion to predict future landfalling hurricane numbers. We call this the indirect approach. Which of these two methods is likely to work better? We answer this question for two simple models. The first model is reasonably realistic, but we have to resort to using simulations to answer the question in the context of this model. The second model is less realistic, but allows us to derive a general analytical result.