Predicting landfalling hurricane numbers from basin hurricane numbers: statistical analysis and predictions

2007/01/15 by Stephen Jewson, Jewson, Stephen, Thomas Laepple +10
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate variability and models #FOS: Physical sciences #Flood Risk Assessment and Management #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0701166

Going from version 1 to version 2, I've added some actual predictions at the end of the paper

openalex publication_date 2007/01/15 · arxiv created 2007/01/29 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

One possible method for predicting landfalling hurricane numbers is to first predict the number of hurricanes in the basin and then convert that prediction to a prediction of landfalling hurricane numbers using an estimated proportion. Should this work better than just predicting landfalling hurricane numbers directly? We perform a basic statistical analysis of this question in the context of a simple abstract model, and convert some previous predictions of basin numbers into landfalling numbers.

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