Five year ahead prediction of Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Atlantic: a comparison between IPCC climate models and simple statistical methods

2007/01/15 by Thomas Laepple, Laepple, Thomas, Stephen Jewson +1
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Climate variability and models #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #physics.ao-ph

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.physics/0701165

arxiv created 2007/01/15 · arxiv updated 2009/12/01

Abstract

There is a clear positive correlation between boreal summer tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature and annual hurricane numbers. This motivates the idea of trying to predict the sea-surface temperature in order to be able to predict future hurricane activity. In previous work we have used simple statistical methods to make 5 year predictions of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures for this purpose. We now compare these statistical SST predictions with SST predictions made by an ensemble mean of IPCC climate models.

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