Intuitive theories of events and the effects of base-rate information on prediction.

1977/05/01 by Icek Ajzen · 7 citations
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Psychology · #Advanced Text Analysis Techniques #Base (topology) #Cognitive psychology #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Psychology #Social psychology

paper · doi:10.1037/0022-3514.35.5.303

crossref issued 1977/05/01 · crossref published 1977/05/01 · crossref published-online 1977/05/01 · openalex publication_date 1977/05/01 · crossref created 2006/06/09 · crossref deposited 2024/02/06 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · crossref indexed 2026/03/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/03/12

Citations

• A Bayesian analysis of attribution processes.
• On the psychology of prediction.
• Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
• Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability

Cited by

• Achieving Quality in Clinical Decision Making: Cognitive Strategies and Detection of Bias
• Individual versus group use of base-rate and individuating information
• The base rate fallacy reconsidered: Descriptive, normative, and methodological challenges
• Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
• Heuristics and Biases
• Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment.
• Representativeness heuristic [wikipedia]