Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness

1972/07/01 by Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · 1 voice · 72 citations
Decision Sciences · Computer Science · #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Forecasting Techniques and Applications

paper · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3

Citations

• Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability

Cited by

• The Parties in Our Heads: Misperceptions about Party Composition and Their Consequences
• Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns
• Social Capital, Trusting, and Trustworthiness: Evidence from Peer-to-Peer Lending
• Do People Use Their Implicit Theories of Creativity as General Theories?
• Validation of the Narrative Emplotment Scale and its correlations with well‐being and psychological adjustment
• Why Ideal Epistemology?
• Noise in Cognition: Bug or Feature?
• Biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution: Evidence from a survey experiment
• Advantages and Disadvantages of Cognitive Heuristics in Political Decision Making
• The case for motivated reasoning.
• On the psychology of prediction.
• Cognitive Reflection Enhances Rationality Without Changing the Underlying Cognitive Processes
• Trust learning in the repeated trust game: A meta‐analytic study
• Michael is better than Mehmet: exploring the perils of algorithmic biases and selective adherence to advice from automated decision support systems in hiring
• The Antecedents and Consequences of Customer Satisfaction for Firms
• auto-psych: Automating the science of mind using agent-driven theory discovery and experimentation
• What Jobs Come to Mind? Stereotypes About Fields of Study
• Generalization, similarity, and Bayesian inference
• Not every story has two sides: the effect of false balance on perceived scientific consensus about interrogation practices
• The False Balance Effect: Exploring Partition Dependence as a Potential Explanation
• Policy makers believe money motivates more than it does
• Positive cueing: Promoting sustainable consumer behavior by cueing common environmental behaviors as environmental
• First steps to a constructor theory of cognition
• The anchoring bias reflects rational use of cognitive resources
• Guess Where: The Position of Correct Answers in Multiple‐Choice Test Items as a Psychometric Variable
• Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations
• Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
• Resource-rational analysis: Understanding human cognition as the optimal use of limited computational resources
• How Do We Believe?
• How Do Language Models Compose Functions?
• Minority salience and the overestimation of individuals from minority groups in perception and memory
• A Framework for Studying AI Agent Behavior: Evidence from Consumer Choice Experiments
• Cognitive Fit: A Theory‐Based Analysis of the Graphs Versus Tables Literature*
• The “Clinching Effect” and Affective Polarization: Exposure to Incivility via Social Media in the Presence of Online News
• Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty
• Nudge Versus Boost: Agency Dynamics Under Libertarian Paternalism
• Cognitive psychology in traffic safety
• Look Before you Leap: Estimating LLM Benchmark Scores from Descriptions
• Count on trust: the indirect effect of trust in government on policy compliance with health behavior instructions
• Revisiting mental accounting classic paradigms: Replication Registered Report of the problems reviewed in Thaler (1999)
• Staff Perspectives: Why are adolescent inpatients secluded and what causes changes in rates of seclusion on a unit?
• Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory
• The Love of Large Numbers: A Popularity Bias in Consumer Choice
• On the Identification of Diagnostic Expectations: Econometric Insights from DSGE Models
• A Theoretical Framework of the Processes of Change in Psychotherapy Delivered by Artificial Agents
• Applying Psychometrics to Large Language Model Simulated Populations: Recreating the HEXACO Personality Inventory Experiment with Generative Agents
• Cognitive bias [wikipedia]
• Automated detection of heuristics and biases among pathologists in a computer-based system. [europepmc]
• Changes in Marital and Partner Relationships in the Aftermath of Hurricane Katrina: An Analysis With Low-Income Women. [europepmc]
• The psychology of Bayesian reasoning. [europepmc]
• Good fences make for good neighbors but bad science: a review of what improves Bayesian reasoning and why. [europepmc]
• The significance fallacy in inferential statistics. [europepmc]
• Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts. [europepmc]
• The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account. [europepmc]
• Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers. [europepmc]
• 'Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is!': Effects of Streaks on Confidence and Betting in a Binary Choice Task. [europepmc]
• Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving. [europepmc]
• Natural frequencies improve Bayesian reasoning in simple and complex inference tasks. [europepmc]
• The Clinical Assessment in the Legal Field: An Empirical Study of Bias and Limitations in Forensic Expertise. [europepmc]
• Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times. [europepmc]
• Who "believes" in the Gambler's Fallacy and why? [europepmc]
• Impulsivity influences betting under stress in laboratory gambling. [europepmc]
• Structured Semantic Knowledge Can Emerge Automatically from Predicting Word Sequences in Child-Directed Speech. [europepmc]
• Exploiting a cognitive bias promotes cooperation in social dilemma experiments. [europepmc]
• The limits of the foreign language effect on decision-making: The case of the outcome bias and the representativeness heuristic. [europepmc]
• Accounting for Individual Differences in Decision-Making Competence: Personality and Gender Differences. [europepmc]
• Unification by Fiat: Arrested Development of Predictive Processing. [europepmc]
• Recognizing a Heart Attack: Patients' Knowledge of Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Its Relation to Prehospital Decision Delay in Acute Coronary Syndrome. [europepmc]
• Using patient feedback to drive quality improvement in hospitals: a qualitative study. [europepmc]
• A theory of memory for binary sequences: Evidence for a mental compression algorithm in humans. [europepmc]
• Beliefs and Risk Perceptions About COVID-19: Evidence From Two Successive French Representative Surveys During Lockdown. [europepmc]
• Serial dependence in visual perception: A review. [europepmc]

Discussions

• Our brains are pattern-seeking machines, but we're bad at understanding randomness. We expect random events to be evenly spaced, but that's wrong---randomness naturally creates clusters doi.org/10.101 [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]