2020/04/26 by Severo, Daniel, Cruz, Giuliano Netto Flores, de Araújo, Alcides Carlos +14
#60K25 (Secondary) #92D30 (Primary) 93A30 #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2004.13488
This technical note aims to provide a brief introduction to the projection models used by the group to project future scenarios for states and municipalities in real-time, according to the disease's behavior in previous days. However, the parameters can be modified by the user to design customized scenarios. The proposed model begins with the calculation of the basic reproduction number for the state or municipality based on the incidence of cases in the last 12 days. Once this is done, the epidemiological curve is projected using the SEIR compartmentalized epidemic model, in possession of this curve, part of the newly projected infected enter a simulation model for health systems in queuing theory, aiming to project future occupations and collapses.