2020/03/31 by Saulo B. Bastos, Bastos, Saulo B., Daniel O. Cajueiro +1
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2003.14288
openalex publication_date 2020/03/31 · openalex created_date 2022/07/28 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We model and forecast the early evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil\nusing Brazilian recent data from February 25, 2020 to March 30, 2020. This\nearly period accounts for unawareness of the epidemiological characteristics of\nthe disease in a new territory, sub-notification of the real numbers of\ninfected people and the timely introduction of social distancing policies to\nflatten the spread of the disease. We use two variations of the SIR model and\nwe include a parameter that comprises the effects of social distancing\nmeasures. Short and long term forecasts show that the social distancing policy\nimposed by the government is able to flatten the pattern of infection of the\nCOVID-19. However, our results also show that if this policy does not last\nenough time, it is only able to shift the peak of infection into the future\nkeeping the value of the peak in almost the same value. Furthermore, our long\nterm simulations forecast the optimal date to end the policy. Finally, we show\nthat the proportion of asymptomatic individuals affects the amplitude of the\npeak of symptomatic infected, suggesting that it is important to test the\npopulation.\n