2020/05/22 by Suzete Maria Silva Afonso, Afonso, Suzete, Juarez S. Azevedo +3
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.11420
openalex publication_date 2020/05/22 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
We shall apply a generalized SEIR model to study the outbreak of COVID-19 in Brazil. In particular, we would like to explain the projections of the increase in the level of infection over a long period of time, overlapping large local outbreaks in the most populous states in the country. A time-dependent dynamic SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during the outbreak in China was used to analyses the time trajectories of infected, recovered, and deaths. The model has parameters that vary with time and are fitted considering a nonlinear least-squares method. The simulations starting from April 8, 2020, concluded that the time for a peak in Brazil will be in July 21, 2020 with total cumulative infected cases around 982K people; in addition, an estimated total death case will reach to 192K in the end. Besides that, Brazil will reach a peak in terms of daily new infected cases and death cases around the middle of July with 50K cases of infected and almost 6.0K daily deaths.