2020/05/12 by Juan E. Santos, Santos, Juan E., José M. Carcione +9
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE) #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2005.06297
openalex publication_date 2020/05/12 · openalex created_date 2022/07/26 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
A pandemic caused by a new coronavirus has spread worldwide, affecting\nArgentina. We implement an SEIR model to analyze the disease evolution in\nBuenos Aires and neighbouring cities. The model parameters are calibrated using\nthe number of casualties officially reported. Since infinite solutions honour\nthe data, we show different cases. In all of them the reproduction ratio R0\ndecreases after early lockdown, but then raises, probably due to an increase in\ncontagion in highly populated slums. Therefore it is mandatory to reverse this\ngrowing trend in R0 by applying control strategies to avoid a high number of\ninfectious and dead individuals. The model provides an effective procedure to\nestimate epidemic parameters (fatality rate, transmission probability,\ninfection and incubation periods) and monitor control measures during the\nepidemic evolution.\n