Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness

1972/07/01 by Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky · 1 voice · 4,886 citations
Computer Science · Decision Sciences · Mathematics · Psychology · #Artificial intelligence #Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference #Bayesian probability #Computer science #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Econometrics #Event (particle physics) #Forecasting Techniques and Applications #Heuristic #Mathematics #Normative #Population #Psychology #Representativeness heuristic #Salient #Sample (material) #Sample size determination #Sampling (signal processing) #Statistics

paper · doi:10.1016/0010-0285(72)90016-3

published in Cognitive Psychology 3(3), 430-454 (Elsevier BV)

openalex publication_date 1972/07/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05

Citations

• Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
• Response preferences: A review of some relevant literature.

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Discussions

• Our brains are pattern-seeking machines, but we're bad at understanding randomness. We expect random events to be evenly spaced, but that's wrong---randomness naturally creates clusters doi.org/10.101 [bsky, 0 points, 1 comments]