The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?

2004/12/01 by Peter Ayton, Ilan Fischer · 486 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Psychology · #Cognitive psychology #Epistemology #Fallacy #Gambling Behavior and Treatments #Mathematics #Philosophy #Psychology #Randomness #Social psychology #Sports Analytics and Performance #Statistics #Statistics Education and Methodologies

paper · pdf · doi:10.3758/bf03206327

published in Memory & Cognition 32(8), 1369-1378 (Springer Science+Business Media)

crossref issued 2004/12/01 · crossref published 2004/12/01 · crossref published-print 2004/12/01 · openalex publication_date 2004/12/01 · crossref created 2011/01/22 · crossref deposited 2024/04/03 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · crossref indexed 2026/07/23 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/23

Citations

• Randomness and inductions from streaks: “Gambler’s fallacy” versus ”hot hand“
• Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
• The hot hand in basketball: On the misperception of random sequences
• How the Mind Works

Cited by

• The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk
• An fMRI study of risk‐taking following wins and losses: Implications for the gambler's fallacy
• Cognitive distortions as a component and treatment focus of pathological gambling: A review.
• Gambler's fallacy [wikipedia]