Coincidences and the encounter problem: A formal account

2011/06/20 by Jean-Louis Dessalles, Jean-Louis J. -L. Dessalles, Dessalles, Jean-Louis J. -L. · 2 citations
Arts and Humanities · Computer Science · Physics and Astronomy · #Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI) #Computability, Logic, AI Algorithms #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Philosophy and History of Science #Quantum Mechanics and Applications #cs.AI

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1106.3932

30th Annual Conference of the Cognitive Science Society, Washington : United States (2008)

arxiv created 2011/06/20 · openalex publication_date 2011/06/20 · arxiv updated 2011/06/21 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Individuals have an intuitive perception of what makes a good coincidence. Though the sensitivity to coincidences has often been presented as resulting from an erroneous assessment of probability, it appears to be a genuine competence, based on non-trivial computations. The model presented here suggests that coincidences occur when subjects perceive complexity drops. Co-occurring events are, together, simpler than if considered separately. This model leads to a possible redefinition of subjective probability.

Citations

• Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness
• Availability: A heuristic for judging frequency and probability
• The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments

Cited by

• Simplicity Effects in the Experience of Near-Miss
• Emotion in good luck and bad luck: predictions from simplicity theory

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