The base-rate fallacy in probability judgments

1980/05/01 by Maya Bar-Hillel, Maya Bar‐Hillel · 37 citations
Decision Sciences · Social Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics #Jury Decision Making Processes #Law, Economics, and Judicial Systems

paper · doi:10.1016/0001-6918(80)90046-3

Cited by

• Individual differences in rational thought.
• Integrate instead of ignoring: Base rate neglect as a common fallacy of petroleum explorers
• Detecting Ambiguity Aversion in Cyberattack Behavior to Inform Cognitive Defense Strategies
• Factors influencing the use of a decision rule in a probabilistic task
• Online learning of symbolic concepts
• Informing, Transforming, and Persuading: Disentangling the Multiple Effects of Advertising on Brand Choice Decisions
• Individual differences in reasoning: Implications for the rationality debate?
• How Language Models Conflate Logical Validity with Plausibility: A Representational Analysis of Content Effects
• Are humans good intuitive statisticians after all? Rethinking some conclusions from the literature on judgment under uncertainty
• Navigating uncertainty in environmental DNA detection of a nuisance marine macroalga
• Perception of Learning Versus Performance as Outcome Measures of Educational Research
• Making sense of recommendations
• Early warning signals of stochastic switching. [europepmc]
• Instruction in information structuring improves Bayesian judgment in intelligence analysts. [europepmc]
• Natural frequencies facilitate diagnostic inferences of managers. [europepmc]
• Determinants of judgment and decision making quality: the interplay between information processing style and situational factors. [europepmc]
• On Bayesian problem-solving: helping Bayesians solve simple Bayesian word problems. [europepmc]
• Measuring Individual Differences in Decision Biases: Methodological Considerations. [europepmc]
• Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling. [europepmc]
• Cognitive Reflection, Decision Biases, and Response Times. [europepmc]
• Making better decisions in groups. [europepmc]
• The limits of the foreign language effect on decision-making: The case of the outcome bias and the representativeness heuristic. [europepmc]
• Responsiveness to feedback as a personal trait. [europepmc]
• Feeling the weight of calories: using haptic feedback as virtual exemplars to promote risk perception among young females on unhealthy snack choices. [europepmc]
• Clinical, Bronchoscopic, and Imaging Findings of e-Cigarette, or Vaping, Product Use-Associated Lung Injury Among Patients Treated at an Academic Medical Center. [europepmc]
• Systems Thinking About SARS-CoV-2. [europepmc]
• Perspectives on the 2 × 2 Matrix: Solving Semantically Distinct Problems Based on a Shared Structure of Binary Contingencies. [europepmc]
• The Measurement of Individual Differences in Cognitive Biases: A Review and Improvement. [europepmc]
• A survey of human judgement and quantitative forecasting methods. [europepmc]
• Feedback moderates the effect of prevalence on perceptual decisions. [europepmc]
• The limited screening accuracy of the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 in detecting depression among perinatal women in Italy. [europepmc]
• Bayes Lines Tool (BLT): a SQL-script for analyzing diagnostic test results with an application to SARS-CoV-2-testing. [europepmc]
• Suboptimal human inference can invert the bias-variance trade-off for decisions with asymmetric evidence. [europepmc]
• The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs. [europepmc]
• The persistence of cognitive biases in financial decisions across economic groups. [europepmc]
• How can we apply decision-making theories to wild animal behavior? Predictions arising from dual process theory and Bayesian decision theory. [europepmc]
• Navigating uncertainty in environmental DNA detection of a nuisance marine macroalga. [europepmc]