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A structural model of intuitive probability

2011/08/22 by Jean-Louis Dessalles, Dessalles, Jean-Louis · 1 citation
Computer Science · Neuroscience · #Advanced Text Analysis Techniques #Artificial Intelligence in Games #Cognitive Science and Education Research #Computational Complexity (cs.CC) #FOS: Computer and information sciences #Other Computer Science (cs.OH) #cs.CC #cs.OH

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.1108.4884

jld-06020601; Proceedings of the seventh International Conference on Cognitive Modeling, Trieste, IT : Italy (2006)

arxiv created 2011/08/22 · openalex publication_date 2011/08/22 · arxiv updated 2011/08/25 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28

Abstract

Though the ability of human beings to deal with probabilities has been put into question, the assessment of rarity is a crucial competence underlying much of human decision-making and is pervasive in spontaneous narrative behaviour. This paper proposes a new model of rarity and randomness assessment, designed to be cognitively plausible. Intuitive randomness is defined as a function of structural complexity. It is thus possible to assign probability to events without being obliged to consider the set of alternatives. The model is tested on Lottery sequences and compared with subjects' preferences.

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