Between goals and means: the electoral consequences of parties’ climate proposals

2026/06/03 by Malo Jan · 2 voices
Social Sciences · #Climate Change Communication and Perception #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Policy Transfer and Learning

paper · doi:10.1080/01402382.2026.2674875

Abstract

How do political parties’ climate proposals impact their electoral fortunes? While research has explored public support for climate policies and the electoral consequences of implementing them, evidence remains limited on how parties’ climate proposals influence their support. This article conceptualises party positions on climate action along two dimensions: the direction of the proposal (supporting or opposing climate action) and its specificity (emphasising goals or concrete policy means). Drawing on a conjoint experiment in France, it analyses how climate proposals on these dimensions affect voter support for hypothetical candidates. Results show that supporting climate goals is electorally rewarding, while climate denial is strongly penalised across partisan lines. However, backing ambitious, concrete climate policies yields no electoral gains and may even provoke voter pushback, whereas avoiding such measures can be advantageous. Overall, the findings suggest pro-climate parties face limited electoral incentives to advance ambitious, specific climate proposals.

Citations

• Global warming and polarization. Wind turbines and the electoral success of the greens and the populist radical right
• The Political Consequences of Green Policies: Evidence from Italy
• How to Get Coal Country to Vote for Climate Policy: The Effect of a “Just Transition Agreement” on Spanish Election Results
• The Energy Transition and Support for the Radical Right: Evidence from the Netherlands
• Going Against the Grain: Climate Change as a Wedge Issue for the Radical Right
• The Green Transition and Political Polarization Along Occupational Lines

Discussions

• #VendrediLecture 📚 Do climate proposals pay off at the ballot box? While climate denial is strongly penalised, supporting climate goals is electorally rewarding, contrary to backing ambitious, conc [bsky, 14 points, 0 comments]
• 🌍 Do voters reward parties for ambitious climate policies? In a French conjoint experiment, @malojan.bsky.social finds voters reward climate goals and punish denial across party lines — but ambitiou [bsky, 14 points, 0 comments]

Related

• Feasible climate policies in a democracy with a climate-denying party
• Voters do not punish their government for climate policies under favorable conditions
• Going Against the Grain: Climate Change as a Wedge Issue for the Radical Right
• Party competition on climate policy: The roles of interest groups, ideology and challenger parties in the UK and Ireland
• Institutions, Climate Change, and the Foundations of Long-Term Policymaking