2023/12/04 by DIANE BOLET, Diane Bolet, FERGUS GREEN +3 · 2 voices · 22 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Social Sciences · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Fiscal Policies and Political Economy
paper · pdf · doi:10.1017/s0003055423001235
openalex publication_date 2023/12/04 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25
Enacting stringent climate policy has proven politically challenging, not least because of concentrated losses in fossil fuel-producing communities. “Just transition” strategies have been proposed to mitigate this distributional challenge. Yet, little is known about how such strategies affect voting behavior. Using a mixed-methods approach, we exploit a local climate policy in Spain—a “Just Transition Agreement” (JTA) to phase out coalmining, support affected workers, and invest in affected municipalities—which was negotiated by the incumbent Socialist Party (PSOE) government with affected unions and businesses shortly before a national election. A difference-in-differences study shows that PSOE’s vote share in coalmining municipalities increased at the 2019 election relative to similar municipalities, implying that the JTA was electorally successful. Further statistical tests and elite interviews suggest that this electoral boost was driven by unions’ support of the JTA. Our findings have implications for how parties can craft popular climate policy.