Precursor candidacy and validation: The VAN Case so far

1996/05/27 by Francesco Mulargia, Paolo Gasperini · 3 citations
Computer Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Artificial intelligence #Candidacy #Computer science #Earthquake Detection and Analysis #Identification (biology) #Law #Political science #Programming language #Seismology and Earthquake Studies #Set (abstract data type) #Statement (logic) #earthquake and tectonic studies

paper · doi:10.1029/95gl03456

openalex publication_date 1996/05/27 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11

Abstract

A reliable identification of seismic precursors requires a two‐step statistical approach: a retrospective “learning” step to establish the candidate precursors on the basis of ad hoc chosen laws of the game, and a “validation” step which evaluates candidate precursors on an independent data set according to the previously established laws of the game. No published work has so far provided a sound support to the candidacy of the VAN signals as earthquake precursors. The problem is complicated by a chronic fuzziness in the text of VAN's predictions, which often allows different interpretations, and by the absence of any clear statement by VAN of the laws of the game.

Citations

• Statistical evaluation of the SES predictions issued in Greece: alarm and success rates
• The VAN earthquake predictions
• Statistical evaluation of the VAN predictions issued during the period 1987–1989
• Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of ‘VAN’ earthquake precursors
• Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals, II
• Statistical evaluation of the VAN Method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece
• Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals

Cited by

• Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis
• VAN: Candidacy and validation with the latest laws of the game
• Earthquake prediction [wikipedia]