1996/05/27 by Francesco Mulargia, Paolo Gasperini · 3 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Candidacy #Computer science #Earthquake Detection and Analysis #Law #Nomination #Period (music) #Physics #Political science #Politics #Seismic Waves and Analysis #Set (abstract data type) #earthquake and tectonic studies
paper · doi:10.1029/95gl03455
openalex publication_date 1996/05/27 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11
We reassess the set of VAN predictions in the period 1987–1989 with the latest laws of the game [ Varotsos et al., 1996]. This reassessment does not modify our previous conclusions: VAN predictions have alarm and success rates too low to accept them as candidate precursors, and a degree of time association with earthquakes which suggests rejection of any precursor nomination. At the same time, this reassessment confirms the tendency of predictions in the period 1987–1989 to significantly follow earthquakes, with 13 earthquakes tracked by a spatially close prediction within 11 days. A validation study of the independent set of VAN predictions in the period 1990–1992, leaving the laws of the game unchanged while restricting the operative region to account for network reduction, denies any significant association of VAN predictions with earthquakes, but confirms the tendency of VAN predictions to follow rather than precede earthquakes.