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Is innovation slowing down? Insights from the AIMS framework of patent values

2025/04/11 by Lei Zhou, Ying Chen, Hanqiu Peng +1 · 1 voice · 5 citations
Business, Management and Accounting · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Innovation Policy and R&D #Intellectual Property and Patents #Private Equity and Venture Capital

paper · doi:10.1016/j.eswa.2025.127355

openalex publication_date 2025/04/11 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/18

Abstract

Amidst the unprecedented expansion of scientific and technological knowledge over the past century, concerns persist regarding a slowdown in innovation. To address this, we introduce the AIMS framework, which categorizes patents into four types—Aurora, Invisible, Mirage, and Success—based on their respective inherent scientific values and market-recognized economic values. Utilizing USPTO patent and citation data from 1976 to 2022, our analysis reveals an increasing volume of patent issuances but a concerning dilution in scientific quality starting in the 2000s. This trend is primarily attributed to the rise of low scientific value patents—categorized as Mirage and Invisible—and a modest decline in high-impact scientific patents—categorized as Success and Aurora. Meanwhile, the economic value of patents has risen, especially noted with the growth in Mirage patents since the 2010s, indicating a shift towards strategies that prioritize market-driven patenting. This study highlights the evolving nature of patents from mere indicators of scientific innovation to strategic tools for market dominance, providing an alternative understanding of patent value and its implications for firms’ strategic decisions over patent issuance across different sectors.

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