Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?

2020/03/31 by Nicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones, John Van Reenen +1 · 19 citations
Decision Sciences · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · #Economic Growth and Productivity #Firm Innovation and Growth #Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting

paper · doi:10.1257/aer.20180338

openalex publication_date 2020/03/31 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30

Abstract

Long-run growth in many models is the product of two terms: the effective number of researchers and their research productivity. We present evidence from various industries, products, and firms showing that research effort is rising substantially while research productivity is declining sharply. A good example is Moore’s Law. The number of researchers required today to achieve the famous doubling of computer chip density is more than 18 times larger than the number required in the early 1970s. More generally, everywhere we look we find that ideas, and the exponential growth they imply, are getting harder to find. (JEL D24, E23, O31, O47)

Citations

• Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function
• A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction
• Endogenous Technological Change
• Age and Great Invention
• Technological Innovation, Resource Allocation, and Growth*
• The Burden of Knowledge and the “Death of the Renaissance Man”: Is Innovation Getting Harder?

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• Capitalism and the Very Long Term

Related

• Is Our Research Productivity In Decline? A New Approach in Resolving the Controversy
• Slowed canonical progress in large fields of science
• Scientific and technological knowledge grows linearly over time
• The Burden of Knowledge and the “Death of the Renaissance Man”: Is Innovation Getting Harder?
• Academic Knowledge: Does it Reflect the Combinatorial Growth of Technology?