2025/11/01 by United Nations Environment Programme · 1 voice · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Climate Change and Environmental Impact #Climate Change and Sustainable Development
paper · pdf · doi:10.59117/20.500.11822/48854
openalex publication_date 2025/11/01 · openalex created_date 2025/11/03 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/04
The sixteenth edition of the Emissions Gap Report finds that global warming projections over this century, based on full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), are now 2.3-2.5°C, while those based on current policies are 2.8°C. This compares to 2.6-2.8°C and 3.1°C in last year’s report. However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C. Reductions to annual emissions of 35 per cent and 55 per cent, compared with 2019 levels, are needed in 2035 to align with the Paris Agreement 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively. Given the size of the cuts needed, the short time available to deliver them and a challenging political climate, a higher exceedance of 1.5°C will happen, very likely within the next decade.