2023/12/26 by Kushal Tibrewal, Katsumasa Tanaka, Tibrewal, Kushal +5
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · Social Sciences · #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Climate Change and Sustainable Development #Climate Change, Adaptation, Migration #FOS: Physical sciences #Geophysics (physics.geo-ph)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2312.16326
openalex publication_date 2023/12/26 · openalex created_date 2023/12/30 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/30
To assess the impact of potential future climate pledges after the first Global Stocktake, we propose a simple, transparent framework for developing emission and temperature scenarios by country. We show that current pledges with unconditional targets lead to global warming of 1.96 (1.39-2.6) degree C by 2100. Further warming could be limited through i) commitment to mid-century net-zero targets for all countries and earlier net-zero targets for developed countries, ii) enhancement of the Global Methane Pledge, and iii) ambitious implementation of the Glasgow Leaders Declaration on Forests and Land Use. Our analysis further shows that overshooting 1.5 degree C is unavoidable, even with supplementary climate engineering strategies, suggesting the need for strategies to limit further overshoot and ultimately reduce the warming towards 1.5 degree C.