2025/03/16 by Reschenhofer, Erhard
#62 #Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph) #FOS: Physical sciences #G.3
paper · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2503.12425
An attempt is made to estimate and forecast the trend of the global annual and monthly mean temperatures. The results of a conventional statistical analysis suggest that in the absence of unforeseeable events such as a sudden acceleration in the rate of warming, the 1.5°C Paris Agreement threshold could be exceeded between 2027 and 2031. However, carrying out a proper seasonal adjustment and examining the autocorrelation structure carefully, we find in a subsequent purely statistical simulation study that even the pessimistic scenario of a breach in late 2027 is inconsistent with the recent monthly highs, which means that it will probably happen much sooner.