A year above 1.5 °C signals that Earth is most probably within the 20-year period that will reach the Paris Agreement limit

2025/02/10 by Emanuele Bevacqua, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Jakob Zscheischler · 1 voice · 8 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Climate variability and models #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

paper · pdf · doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02246-9

openalex publication_date 2025/02/10 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

Abstract The temperature goals of the Paris Agreement are measured as 20-year averages exceeding a pre-industrial baseline. The calendar year of 2024 was announced as the first above 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, but the implications for the corresponding temperature goal are unclear. Here we show that, without very stringent climate mitigation, the first year above 1.5 °C occurs within the first 20-year period with an average warming of 1.5 °C.

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Discussions

• Paper no1 by @bevacquae.bsky.social and colleagues asks what a year where average annual global warming is at or above 1.5°C tells us about the timing of reaching or exceeding the Paris Agreement's lo [bsky, 3 points, 1 comments]

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