2023/04/17 by Andrés Rodríguez‐Pose, Javier Terrero-Dávila, Neil Lee · 2 voices · 160 citations
Social Sciences · #Demographic economics #Demography #Development economics #Economic inequality #Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Immigration #Inequality #Interpersonal communication #Per capita #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Population #Populism #Populism, Right-Wing Movements #Social Capital and Networks #Social science #Sociology #Voting
paper · pdf · doi:10.1093/jeg/lbad005
published in Journal of Economic Geography 23(5), 951-977 (Oxford University Press)
openalex publication_date 2023/04/17 · openalex created_date 2023/04/19 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31
Abstract Economic change over the past 20 years has rendered many individuals and territories vulnerable, leading to greater interpersonal and interterritorial inequality. This rising inequality is seen as a root cause of populism. Yet, there is no comparative evidence as to whether this discontent is the consequence of localised interpersonal inequality or stagnant growth in ‘left-behind’ places. This article assesses the association between levels and changes in local GDP per capita and interpersonal inequality, and the rise of far-right populism in Europe and in the USA. The analysis—conducted at small region level for Europe and county level for the USA—shows that there are both similarities and differences in the factors connected to populist voting on both sides of the Atlantic. In the USA, neither interpersonal inequality nor economic decline can explain populist support on their own. However, these factors gain significance when considered together with the racial composition of the area. Counties with a large share of white population where economic growth has been stagnant and where inequalities have increased supported Donald Trump. Meanwhile, counties with a similar economic trajectory but with a higher share of minorities shunned populism. In Europe, the most significant factor behind the rise of far-right populism is economic decline. This effect is particularly large in areas with a high share of immigration.