Status threat, not economic hardship, explains the 2016 presidential vote
2018/04/23 by Diana C. Mutz · 1 voice · 1,249 citations
Psychology · Social Sciences · #China #Demographic economics #Development economics #Economics #Electoral Systems and Political Participation #Law #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Presidential election #Presidential system #Psychology #Public opinion #Social and Cultural Dynamics #Social and Intergroup Psychology #Sociology
paper · open access · doi:10.1073/pnas.1718155115
published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(19), E4330-E4339 (National Academy of Sciences)
openalex publication_date 2018/04/23 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
Abstract
This study evaluates evidence pertaining to popular narratives explaining the American public's support for Donald J. Trump in the 2016 presidential election. First, using unique representative probability samples of the American public, tracking the same individuals from 2012 to 2016, I examine the "left behind" thesis (that is, the theory that those who lost jobs or experienced stagnant wages due to the loss of manufacturing jobs punished the incumbent party for their economic misfortunes). Second, I consider the possibility that status threat felt by the dwindling proportion of traditionally high-status Americans (i.e., whites, Christians, and men) as well as by those who perceive America's global dominance as threatened combined to increase support for the candidate who emphasized reestablishing status hierarchies of the past. Results do not support an interpretation of the election based on pocketbook economic concerns. Instead, the shorter relative distance of people's own views from the Republican candidate on trade and China corresponded to greater mass support for Trump in 2016 relative to Mitt Romney in 2012. Candidate preferences in 2016 reflected increasing anxiety among high-status groups rather than complaints about past treatment among low-status groups. Both growing domestic racial diversity and globalization contributed to a sense that white Americans are under siege by these engines of change.
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