Provocation, Public Opinion, and International Disputes: Evidence from China

2022/03/28 by Allan Dafoe, Samuel Liu, Brian O'Keefe +1 · 28 citations
Psychology · Social Sciences · #Action (physics) #Anger #China #Coercion (linguistics) #Corruption and Economic Development #Credibility #Criminology #Deterrence (psychology) #Deterrence theory #Face (sociological concept) #Government (linguistics) #International Relations and Foreign Policy #Law #Political Conflict and Governance #Political economy #Political science #Politics #Psychology #Public opinion #Public relations #Social psychology #Sociology

paper · doi:10.1093/isq/sqac006

published in International Studies Quarterly 66(2) (Oxford University Press)

openalex publication_date 2022/03/28 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/25

Abstract

Abstract What public pressures do leaders face in international disputes? Leaders often denounce foreign actions as provocations, triggering public anger and demands for restitution. Rather than generating a reflexive rally around the flag, we argue that leaders who invoke foreign provocations—whether hypothetical, remembered, exaggerated, or real—face heightened public disapproval if they fail to take tough action in the present. Across two survey experiments and a quasi-experiment involving US naval patrols in the South China Sea, we find that incidents construed as provocative increase public pressure on the Chinese government to respond or incur public disapproval. We discuss possible explanations, how government elites seek to mitigate public disapproval, and how such events can change the logic of coercion and deterrence.

Citations

• When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs
• Audience Costs among the British Public: The Impact of Escalation, Crisis Type, and Prime Ministerial Rhetoric
• The Cost of Empty Threats: A Penny, Not a Pound
• Patriotism or Opinion Leadership?
• Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
• Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs
• Autocratic Audience Costs: Regime Type and Signaling Resolve
• Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach
• Revisiting Reputation: How Past Actions Matter in International Politics
• Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict
• Promises or Policies? An Experimental Analysis of International Agreements and Audience Reactions
• The Illusion of Democratic Credibility
• Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues: How Elites Shape Mass Opinion across International Issues
• Crossing the Water's Edge: Elite Rhetoric, Media Coverage, and the Rally-Round-the-Flag Phenomenon

Cited by

• Win-Win Deescalation
• How Low Can You Go? The Effects of Low Credibility False Flag Incidents on International and Domestic Approval for Interstate Wars 1

Related

• Authoritarian Audiences, Rhetoric, and Propaganda in International Crises: Evidence from China
• Cautious Bully: Reputation, Resolve, and Beijing's Use of Coercion in the South China Sea
• Can China Back Down? Crisis De-escalation in the Shadow of Popular Opposition
• Barking Without Biting: Understanding Chinese Media Campaigns During Foreign Policy Disputes
• PRC Assertiveness in the South China Sea: Measuring Continuity and Change, 1970–2015