Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages
1960/04/01 by Peter R. Winters · 2,109 citations
Decision Sciences · Engineering · Mathematics · #Advanced Statistical Process Monitoring #Artificial intelligence #Computer science #Control (management) #Demand forecasting #Econometrics #Economics #Engineering #Exponential function #Exponential growth #Exponential smoothing #Forecasting Techniques and Applications #Industrial engineering #Inventory control #Mathematics #Microeconomics #Moving average #Operations Management Techniques #Operations research #Production (economics) #Sales forecasting
paper · doi:10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324
published in Management Science 6(3), 324-342 (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences)
openalex publication_date 1960/04/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
Abstract
The growing use of computers for mechanized inventory control and production planning has brought with it the need for explicit forecasts of sales and usage for individual products and materials. These forecasts must be made on a routine basis for thousands of products, so that they must be made quickly, and, both in terms of computing time and information storage, cheaply; they should be responsive to changing conditions. The paper presents a method of forecasting sales which has these desirable characteristics, and which in terms of ability to forecast compares favorably with other, more traditional methods. Several models of the exponential forecasting system are presented, along with several examples of application.
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