2026/04/22 by Jonathan Gasser, J. M. Sokół, Heather A. Elliott +10 · 1 voice
Engineering · #Space Satellite Systems and Control #Computational Fluid Dynamics and Aerodynamics #Spacecraft Dynamics and Control
paper · doi:10.1016/j.asr.2026.04.074
The New Horizons (NH) spacecraft is en route to cross the termination shock (TS) as it traverses the outer reaches of our solar system and will eventually leave the heliosphere and enter interstellar space. It is currently the only operational mission in the outer heliosphere and is equipped with instrumentation allowing to study the heliospheric boundaries. Careful preparation and operations planning for the TS encounter are necessary to maximize the scientific return from in situ observations. Thus, in this study, we aim to predict the timing of the TS crossing by NH. For this, we apply three different methods to derive the TS distance based on forecasted solar wind variations over time. We consider a stationary spherical TS approximation, an analytical hydrodynamic approximation under time-dependent solar wind dynamic pressure, and a time-dependent full 3D MHD model solution. We predict the NH encounter with the TS based on its radial distance from the Sun in time. Our results indicate that NH could encounter the TS as early as 2029 or as late as 2040, depending on the model used and future solar wind activity. Our results also indicate that multiple TS crossings by NH could happen over one to several years.