2019/09/30 by Ming Dong · 27 citations
Computer Science · Engineering · #Computer science #Electric power system #Electrical engineering #Energy Load and Power Forecasting #Engineering #Power (physics) #Power Quality and Harmonics #Power Transformer Diagnostics and Insulation #Reliability engineering #Transformer #Voltage #cs.CE #cs.SY #eess.SY
paper · pdf · doi:10.1109/tpwrd.2020.2988921
published in IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery 36(2), 686-697 (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers)
openalex publication_date 2020/04/20 · arxiv created 2020/07/01 · arxiv updated 2020/07/02 · openalex created_date 2020/11/23 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/15
This paper presents a data-driven method for estimating annual continuous dynamic rating of power transformers to serve the long-term planning purpose. Historically, research works on dynamic rating have been focused on real-time/near-future system operations. There has been a lack of research for long-term planning oriented applications. Currently, most utility companies still rely on static rating numbers when planning power transformers for the next few years. In response, this paper proposes a novel and comprehensive method to analyze the past 5-year temperature, loading and load composition data of existing power transformers in a planning region. Based on such data and the forecasted area load composition, a future power transformer's load shape profile can be constructed by using Gaussian Mixture Model. Then according to IEEE std. C57.91-2011, a power transformer thermal aging model can be established to incorporate future loading and temperature profiles. As a result, annual continuous dynamic rating profiles under different temperature scenarios can be determined. The profiles can reflect the long-term thermal overloading risk in a much more realistic and granular way, which can significantly improve the accuracy of power transformer planning. A real utility application example in Canada has been presented to validate and demonstrate the practicality and usefulness of this method.