2017/01/01 by A. Kononovicius, Aleksejus Kononovicius
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Physics and Astronomy · #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Distribution (mathematics) #Empirical research #Instant-runoff voting #Lithuanian #Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence #Polling #Ranked voting system #Simple (philosophy) #Theoretical and Computational Physics #Voting #physics.soc-ph
paper · pdf · doi:10.1155/2017/7354642
published as Complexity 2017: 7354642 · 19 pages, 11 figures
openalex publication_date 2017/01/01 · openalex created_date 2017/04/28 · arxiv created 2017/11/10 · arxiv updated 2017/12/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
We analyze a parties’ vote share distribution across the polling stations during the Lithuanian parliamentary elections of 1992, 2008, and 2012. We find that the distribution is rather well fitted by the Beta distribution. To reproduce this empirical observation, we propose a simple multistate agent-based model of the voting behavior. In the proposed model, agents change the party they vote for either idiosyncratically or due to a linear recruitment mechanism. We use the model to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the election of 1992. We discuss model extensions needed to reproduce the vote share distribution observed during the other elections.