The 10 trillion value of better information about the transient climate response

2015/10/05 by Chris Hope · 3 citations
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Environmental Science · Mathematics · #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Economic and Environmental Valuation #Climate change #Environmental science #Probabilistic logic #Transient climate simulation #Transient (computer programming) #Value of information #Value (mathematics) #Climate model #Meteorology #Computer science #Econometrics #Statistics #Mathematics #Geography #Geology

paper · doi:10.1098/rsta.2014.0429

openalex publication_date 2015/10/05 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/05/21

Abstract

How much is better information about climate change worth? Here, I use PAGE09, a probabilistic integrated assessment model, to find the optimal paths of CO(2) emissions over time and to calculate the value of better information about one aspect of climate change, the transient climate response (TCR). Approximately halving the uncertainty range for TCR has a net present value of about 10.3 trillion (year 2005 US) if accomplished in time for emissions to be adjusted in 2020, falling to 9.7 trillion if accomplished by 2030. Probabilistic integrated assessment modelling is the only method we have for making estimates like these for the value of better information about the science and impacts of climate change.

Citations

• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

Cited by

• Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity
• The social cost of carbon dioxide under climate-economy feedbacks and temperature variability
• Climate sensitivity [wikipedia]

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