2018/04/02 by Richard Millar, Pierre Friedlingstein · 3 citations
Environmental Science · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Engineering · #Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics #Climate variability and models #Climate Change Policy and Economics #Transient (computer programming) #Environmental science #Climate change #Cumulative effects #Transient response #Computer science #Geology #Engineering
paper · pdf · doi:10.1098/rsta.2016.0449
openalex publication_date 2018/04/02 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/02
The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO 2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO 2 -only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO 2 -induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO 2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.