Statistical tests of VAN earthquake predictions: Comments and reflections

1996/05/27 by Y. Y. Kagan, D. D. Jackson · 7 citations
Computer Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · Mathematics · #Computer science #Diversity (politics) #Earthquake Detection and Analysis #Earthquake prediction #Econometrics #Geology #Law #Mathematics #Null hypothesis #Political science #Seismology #Seismology and Earthquake Studies #Statistical hypothesis testing #Statistics #earthquake and tectonic studies

paper · doi:10.1029/95gl03786

openalex publication_date 1996/05/27 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/06/11

Abstract

The papers in the debate show that precise consideration of whether various events should be considered as having been successfully predicted is one of the key issues for statistical testing of the VAN earthquake prediction efforts. Other issues involve whether the VAN prediction rules have been adjusted retroactively to fit data, how to test the prediction significance and, finally, the criteria for rejection of the null hypothesis‐that the VAN successful predictions are due to chance. The diversity of views on these subjects suggests that the seismological community needs a general strategy for evaluating earthquake prediction methods.

Citations

• VAN earthquake predictions‒An attempt at statistical evaluation
• Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes
• Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes, I
• Evaluating the statistical validity beyond chance of ‘VAN’ earthquake precursors
• Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals, II
• Statistical evaluation of the VAN Method using the historic earthquake catalog in Greece
• The VAN earthquake predictions
• Earthquake prediction evaluation standards applied to the VAN Method
• Physical properties of the variations of the electric field of the earth preceding earthquakes. II. determination of epicenter and magnitude
• Latest aspects of earthquake prediction in Greece based on seismic electric signals

Cited by

• Earthquake prediction and public policy
• Is Earthquake Seismology a Hard, Quantitative Science?
• Costs and benefits of earthquake prediction studies in Greece
• Earthquake prediction: a critical review
• Earthquake prediction: the null hypothesis
• Are earthquakes predictable?
• Earthquake prediction [wikipedia]