1998/09/01 by Gunduz Caginalp, Henry Laurent · 1 citation
Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Decision Sciences · Mathematics · #Financial Markets and Investment Strategies #Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis #Stock Market Forecasting Methods #Econometrics #Null hypothesis #Predictive power #Statistical hypothesis testing #Economics #Profit (economics) #Sample (material) #Null (SQL) #Statistics #Statistical power #Mathematics #Computer science #Data mining #Microeconomics
paper · doi:10.1080/135048698334637
openalex publication_date 1998/09/01 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/29
Using two sets of data, including daily prices (open, close, high and low) of all S&P 500 stocks between 1992 and 1996, we perform a satistical test of the predictive capability of candlestick patterns. Out-of-sample tests indicate statistical significance at the level of 36 standard deviations from the null hypothesis, and indicate a profit of almost 1% during a two-day holding period. An essentially non-parametric test utilizes standard definitions of three-day candlestick patterns and removes conditions on magnitudes. The results provide evidence that traders are influenced by price behaviour. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first scientific test to provide strong evidence in favour of any trading rule or pattern on a large unrestricted scale.