2020/06/12 by Peter Cotton, Cotton, Peter
Business, Management and Accounting · Economics, Econometrics and Finance · Mathematics · Social Sciences · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Corporate Finance and Governance #Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Economics and business #FOS: Physical sciences #Financial Markets and Investment Strategies #Income, Poverty, and Inequality #Mathematical Finance (q-fin.MF) #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2006.07341
openalex publication_date 2020/06/12 · openalex created_date 2021/02/01 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
In constant parameter compartmental models an early onset of herd immunity is\nat odds with estimates of R values from early stage growth. This paper utilizes\na result from the theory of interest rate modeling, namely a bond pricing\nformula of Vasicek, and an approach inspired by a foundational result in\nstatistics, de Finetti's Theorem, to show how the modeling discrepancy can be\nexplained. Moreover the difference between predictions of classic constant\nparameter epidemiological models and those with variation and stochastic\nevolution can be reduced to simple "convexity" formulas. A novel feature of\nthis approach is that we do not attempt to locate a true model but only a model\nthat is equivalent after permutations. Convexity adjustments can also be used\nfor cross sectional comparisons and we derive easy to use rules of thumb for\nestimating threshold infection level in one region given knowledge of threshold\ninfection in another.\n