Herd immunity under individual variation and reinfection

2020/07/31 by Antonio Montalbán, Montalbán, Antonio, Rodrigo M. Corder +3 · 2 citations
Mathematics · Medicine · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 Research #Mathematical and Theoretical Epidemiology and Ecology Models

paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2008.00098

Abstract

We study a SEIR model considered by Gomes et al. \citeGomes2020 and Aguas et al. \citeAguas2020 where different individuals are assumed to have different levels of susceptibility or exposure to infection. Under this heterogeneity assumption, epidemic growth is effectively suppressed when the percentage of population having acquired immunity surpasses a critical level - the herd immunity threshold - that is lower than in homogeneous populations. We find explicit formulas to calculate herd immunity thresholds and stable configuration, and explore extensions of the model.

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