2020/09/25 by Rohan Patil, Patil, Rohan, Raviraj Dave +9
Mathematics · Medicine · Physics and Astronomy · #COVID-19 epidemiological studies #Complex Network Analysis Techniques #Data-Driven Disease Surveillance #FOS: Biological sciences #FOS: Physical sciences #Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph) #Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)
paper · pdf · doi:10.48550/arxiv.2009.12076
openalex publication_date 2020/09/25 · openalex created_date 2022/07/25 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/28
The dense social contact networks and high mobility in congested urban areas\nfacilitate the rapid transmission of infectious diseases. Typical mechanistic\nepidemiological models are either based on uniform mixing with ad-hoc contact\nprocesses or need real-time or archived population mobility data to simulate\nthe social networks. However, the rapid and global transmission of the novel\ncoronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has led to unprecedented lockdowns at global and\nregional scales, leaving the archived datasets to limited use. While it is\noften hypothesized that population density is a significant driver in disease\npropagation, the disparate disease trajectories and infection rates exhibited\nby the different cities with comparable densities require a high-resolution\ndescription of the disease and its drivers. In this study, we explore the\nimpact of the creation of containment zones on travel patterns within the city.\nFurther, we use a dynamical network-based infectious disease model to\nunderstand the key drivers of disease spread at sub-kilometer scales\ndemonstrated in the city of Ahmedabad, India, which has been classified as a\nSARS-CoV-2 hotspot. We find that in addition to the contact network and\npopulation density, road connectivity patterns and ease of transit are strongly\ncorrelated with the rate of transmission of the disease. Given the limited\naccess to real-time traffic data during lockdowns, we generate road\nconnectivity networks using open-source imageries and travel patterns from\nopen-source surveys and government reports. Within the proposed framework, we\nthen analyze the relative merits of social distancing, enforced lockdowns, and\nenhanced testing and quarantining mitigating the disease spread.\n