The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4
2025/06/12 by Paul Wiegert, Wiegert, Paul, Peter Brown +6 · 11 voices · 12 citations
Engineering · Physics and Astronomy · #Asteroid #Asteroid belt #Astro and Planetary Science #Astrobiology #Astronomy #Ejecta #Geology #Impact crater #Impact energy #Interplanetary dust cloud #Materials science #Meteorite #Meteoroid #Physics #Planetary Science and Exploration #Solar System #Space Satellite Systems and Control
paper · pdf · doi:10.3847/2041-8213/adfa8b
published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters 990(1), L20 (IOP Publishing)
openalex created_date 2025/08/29 · openalex publication_date 2025/08/29 · openalex updated_date 2026/08/05
Abstract
Abstract On 2032 December 22, the 60 m diameter asteroid 2024 YR 4 has a 4% chance of impacting the Moon. Such an impact would release 6.5 MT TNT equivalent energy and produce a ∼1 km diameter crater. We estimate that up to 10 8 kg of lunar material could be liberated in such an impact by exceeding lunar escape speed. The current overall probability is about 1% that the asteroid will impact the Moon at a location such that more than 10% of the ejected material would accrete to the Earth on timescales of a few days. If this were to occur, the lunar-ejecta-associated particle fluence at 0.1–10 mm sizes could produce up to several years of equivalent background meteoroid impact exposure to satellites in near-Earth space late in 2032. Our results demonstrate that planetary defense considerations should be more broadly extended to cislunar space and not confined solely to near-Earth space.
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Discussions
- "We suggest that the global space community consider extending the formal definition & scope of planetary defense beyond the confines of planet Earth itself..." You know the authors had fun typing tha [bsky, 39 points, 1 comments]
- What happens if a house-sized asteroid hits the Moon? arxiv.org/abs/2506.11217 #space #news #astronomy [bsky, 11 points, 1 comments]
- "On 2032 December 22 the 60m diameter asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of impacting the Moon. Such an impact would release 6.5 MT TNT equivalent energy and produce a ∼ 1 km diameter crater. ... up to [bsky, 6 points, 0 comments]
- Potential Danger to Satellites from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4 [hn, 3 points, 0 comments]
- The ejecta from an impactor like 2024 YR4 impacting the Moon would primarily be a hazard for spacecraft in lunar orbit - only a part in a thousand of it would escape the Moon. There would have been ~1 [bsky, 3 points, 1 comments]
- I'm back! Well actually there's a not insignificant chance I'll be back in 2032, and I'm comin' fer yer moon! arxiv.org/pdf/2506.11217 [bsky, 2 points, 0 comments]
- On 2032 December 22 the 60 m diameter asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of impacting the Moon. arxiv.org/abs/2506.11217 [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- I am crossing all my fingers that this be the case 🤞🤞🤞Love this paper arxiv.org/abs/2506.11217 about the possible outcomes of such an impact [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- Paper link: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2506.11217 "The Potential Danger to Satellites due to Ejecta from a 2032 Lunar Impact by Asteroid 2024 YR4" by Wiegert et al. [bsky, 1 points, 0 comments]
- arxiv.org/pdf/2506.11217 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
- Feed: "AAS Nova" By: Kerry Hensley on Monday, October 27, 2025 [bsky, 0 points, 0 comments]
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