Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO 2 Concentrations

2006/06/30 by Stephen P. Long, Elizabeth A. Ainsworth, Andrew D. B. Leakey +2 · 9 citations
Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Environmental Science · Earth and Planetary Sciences · #Plant responses to elevated CO2 #Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics #Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols

paper · doi:10.1126/science.1114722

openalex publication_date 2006/06/30 · openalex created_date 2016/06/24 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/31

Abstract

Model projections suggest that although increased temperature and decreased soil moisture will act to reduce global crop yields by 2050, the direct fertilization effect of rising carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]) will offset these losses. The CO2 fertilization factors used in models to project future yields were derived from enclosure studies conducted approximately 20 years ago. Free-air concentration enrichment (FACE) technology has now facilitated large-scale trials of the major grain crops at elevated [CO2] under fully open-air field conditions. In those trials, elevated [CO2] enhanced yield by approximately 50% less than in enclosure studies. This casts serious doubt on projections that rising [CO2] will fully offset losses due to climate change.

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