2006/06/13 by Michael Mann, Kerry Emanuel · 6 citations
Earth and Planetary Sciences · Environmental Science · #Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research #Climate variability and models #Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
paper · pdf · doi:10.1029/2006eo240001
openalex publication_date 2006/06/13 · openalex created_date 2025/10/10 · openalex updated_date 2026/07/11
Increases in key measures of Atlantic hurricane activity over recent decades are believed to reflect, in large part, contemporaneous increases in tropical Atlantic warmth [ e.g., Emanuel , 2005]. Some recent studies [ e.g., Goldenberg et al. , 2001] have attributed these increases to a natural climate cycle termed the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), while other studies suggest that climate change may instead be playing the dominant role [ Emanuel , 2005; Webster et al. , 2005]. Using a formal statistical analysis to separate the estimated influences of anthropogenic climate change from possible natural cyclical influences, this article presents results indicating that anthropogenic factors are likely responsible for long‐term trends in tropical Atlantic warmth and tropical cyclone activity. In addition, this analysis indicates that late twentieth century tropospheric aerosol cooling has offset a substantial fraction of anthropogenic warming in the region and has thus likely suppressed even greater potential increases in tropical cyclone activity.